Independent Vote Analysis

USA Today 2/18/04

Democrats across the country were watching Wisconsin closely Tuesday to determine whether the state's primary results would seal their party's presidential nomination for Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. But of high interest to both political parties are the patterns of voters who don't predictably align with either.

Wisconsin typically attracts large numbers of independents to its party primaries. If post-election voter surveys reflect recent national trends, President Bush faces defections in this group that historically makes up a third of the electorate and determines close elections.

After giving Bush strong support for two years following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, independents' support is increasingly at play because of mounting concerns about the direction of the economy and the U.S. operation in Iraq, several recent polls show.

How effectively Bush and his eventual Democratic opponent address those worries could prove decisive this November.

Among the signs:

Bush's job approval among independents in the National Annenberg Election Survey tracking poll dipped from 61% to 52% in recent weeks. The drop coincided with news stories that Iraq apparently did not have weapons of mass destruction before the U.S. invaded last year.

In an Associated Press-Ipsos Poll this month, a majority of independents said the country was headed down the wrong track.

Polling-place surveys during New Hampshire's Jan. 27 primary found that nearly nine in 10 independents were worried about the direction of the economy; eight out of 10 said they wanted some or all of Bush's tax cuts canceled. Independent voters made up nearly half the record turnout for the state's Democratic primary.

Independents also have been putting Democrats on notice. Surveys at the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses found independents were turned off the most by negative TV ads run on behalf of Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt, whose campaigns have since imploded. Similarly, independents in last week's Tennessee and Virginia primaries were most attracted to North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who has avoided attacks on rivals.

In the 2000 presidential election, nearly one in four voters were independents, and Bush carried them 47% to 45%. As this bloc emerges again as a decisive force in 2004, Republican and Democratic partisans have been warned: Offer constructive solutions to these voters' pressing concerns.