Independents' Day
By John Avlon
Independents' Day has finally arrived in the 2008 election.
Over the past 15 years, independents voters have gone from being a political afterthought to the largest and fastest growing segment of the American electorate. This post-partisan shift has led us to the nomination of two of the least polarizing presidential nominees in recent times – and now independent voters will decide which one is elected in November.
Key battleground swing states of the 2008 election – Pennsylvania, Florida, Colorado and North Carolina – each have more than 1 million registered independent voters. In Iowa, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Connecticut and Massachusetts, independents outnumber both Republicans and Democrats. How did this happen?
When John F. Kennedy ran for president in 1960 only 1.6% of American voters were registered as independents, according to the Center for the Study of the American Electorate. As the two parties grew more ideologically polarized amid the conflicts of the late-1960s and beyond, the number of independents grew. There was realignment in the form of Reagan Democrats and then de-alignment as voters grew alienated by the excesses of the far-left and far-right.
The modern independent movement kicked into high gear with the 1992 independent presidential campaign of Texas billionaire Ross Perot. Promoting fiscal discipline and political reform, Perot briefly led in the polls – a first for an independent presidential candidate – and despite dropping out mid-summer and then flakily getting back in the race, he managed to achieve 19% of the popular vote.
Over the course of the 1990s, the independent movement kept growing while Democrats and Republicans warred in Washington. No less than three independent governors were elected: Angus King of Maine, Lowell Weicker of Connecticut, and Jesse Ventura of Minnesota. All spread the same essential reform message – independence from the special interests guided by a combination of fiscal conservatism and social liberalism.
The momentum has continued this decade with the election of independent senator Joe Lieberman, popular independent New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, and the independent-in-all-but-name California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
This is the new mainstream in American politics. This trend fit the times in large part because younger voters overwhelmingly identify with being independent. Forty-five percent of voters age 25 to 40 describe themselves as independent. And over 40% of college undergraduates identified themselves as independents or "radical centrists," according to Professor David King of the Kennedy School of Government. Gen X and Gen Y voters reject the straitjacket of partisan politics in large part because of their reaction to the hate-filled hyperpolarized partisan politics that have dominated debate in the wake of the 1960s.
This instinct is bolstered by the basic issue of choice: For a generation that's grown up with over 500 cable channels and the unlimited number of choices on the Internet, conventional politics is the last place that people are expected to be satisfied with a choice between Brand A and Brand B. But partisan politics are still played by industrial age rules. They haven't woken up to the information age reality.
The candidacies of Obama and McCain offer the best opportunity in a generation to break through the polarizing partisan divide. Both candidates ran the gauntlet of their respective primaries while making explicit appeals to independents. They took on the establishment of their parties and won.
Now independents are returning the favor – a recent Washington Post/ABC poll showed that independents have high approval ratings for both candidates, opening the possibility of an election where the unaffiliated vote for the candidate they best, not the candidate they dislike least. Another June poll by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics shows independents split 38% to 30% between Senator McCain and Senator Obama – a rare bright sign for the GOP this cycle.
McCain earned his credibility with independents after years of maverick independence in the senate: a resistance to the play-to-the-base pandering of Karl Rove and principled opposition to Tom DeLay's corrupt congress. Obama's appeal is rooted in his persistent post-partisanship – he speaks to a new generation that wants to transcend the tired old left/right, black/white debates that have dominated American politics since the 1960s. As he said in his speech at the Democratic convention in 2004, "there's not a liberal America and a conservative America — there's the United States of America."
This remains as compelling an idea as it was after the American Revolution, when our founding fathers warned us of the dangers of division and faction inside the United States. George Washington reflected "I was no party man myself, and the first wish of my heart was, if parties did exist, to reconcile them." The father of the Constitution, James Madison warned that "the public good is disregarded in the conflicts between rival parties." We rediscover these truths by voting for policies over personality and putting patriotism above partisanship. Joining the growing ranks of the independents may be the best way to celebrate Independence Day in 2008.
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