The Rise of Independents
The future lies with those wise political
leaders who realize that the great public is interested more in Government than
in politics . . . The growing independence of voters, after all, has been proven
by the votes in every Presidential election since my childhood—and the tendency,
frankly, is on the increase.
—Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1940
In the more than sixty years since FDR
predicted the rise of independence in the American electorate, analysis of
congressional voting records shows that Washington has grown more polarized,
driven by ideology and disdaining compromise, than at any time in the recent
past.
This trend has especially been on the increase
since the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980, and continued to grow with the
anti-Clinton fervor of the 1994 Newt Gingrich–led Republican Revolution. As
columnist George Will has written: "Some ideologically intoxicated Republicans
think Democrats are not merely mistaken but sinful . . . Some Democrats, having
lost their ideological confidence, substitute character assassination for
political purpose."
This polarization has been cemented by
redistricting—creating safe congressional seats for incumbents to occupy without
the built-in check and balance of a credible opposition candidate. Currently, 90
percent of congressional seats are considered "safe." Once upon a time in
America, people chose their congressmen; now congressmen choose their people.
As Congress has grown more partisan, however,
the electorate has grown steadily more Centrist, with the number of
self-identified moderates rising from a bare plurality of 36 percent in 1980 to
50 percent in 1998 and 2000. At the same time, the number of Americans who are
reluctant to identify themselves completely with either political party has been
steadily rising.
In the mid twentieth century, party
identification was a badge of honor. According to the National Election Studies
program at the University of Michigan, fifty years ago 47 percent of voters
identified with the Democrats and 28 percent with the Republicans, while just 23
percent were independents. In the year 2000, however, those numbers were almost
reversed, with 40 percent of American voters describing themselves as
independents, 34 percent as Democrats, and 24 percent as Republicans.
Twenty-three percent of Americans agreed that
"the two-party system works fairly well," while another study found that only 14
percent of the electorate said they always supported the candidates of a single
party. This willingness to vote for candidates from different parties is another
indication of independence and the corresponding inclination toward Centrism. It
amounts to a civil statement of discontent with the two dominant choices and
their divisive approach to common problems. Centrism is civility.
Not coincidentally, as our professional
politicians have become more partisan, Americans have reacted by voting in a new
era of divided government, balancing the power of the president with a Congress
from the opposite party for all but six years since 1980. The object of these
voting patterns is not a wish for gridlock, but pursuit of the implicit
assurance that extremists in one party will not be able to hijack the national
legislative agenda. Likewise, there is a presumption that with a balanced
government the best ideas from both parties will be the only legislation able to
be passed. It is an instinctive extension of the constitutional principle of
checks and balances, an attempt to moderate excesses in an excessively partisan
era.
The steadily growing ranks of independent
voters constitute a quiet revolution, and it is growing: This independent
plurality becomes even more pronounced when you look at the politics of younger
Americans. Again, fully 44 percent of those aged eighteen to twenty-nine
identify themselves as Independents. Demographics are destiny.
"This old left-right paradigm is not working
anymore," remarks author Douglas Coupland, who coined the term "Generation X"
with his 1992 novel of the same name. "Coming down the pipe are an
extraordinarily large number of fiscal conservatives who are socially left."
This independence from the traditional dogmas
of left and right finds its political expression in Centrism. Centrism
accommodates a healthy degree of skepticism about the predictable rhetoric and
rigid policy solutions ideologues offer for every problem, while offering
individuals the freedom to choose the best ideas from either of the two parties.
Because Centrist leaders are not slaves to ideology or party policy, they have a
higher degree of freedom to speak their mind and find the best solution to any
given problem.
This commonsense perspective led to the
election of Maine's popular and successful two-term Independent governor Angus
King. He was one of a group of Independent governors—including Connecticut's
Lowell Weicker and Minnesota's Jesse Ventura—who were elected in the last decade
of the twentieth century. All were reformers who believed in fiscal
responsibility and social inclusiveness, and they rode to office campaigning
against the ideological straitjacket imposed by the two-party system.
"It's becoming more acceptable for voters to
consider Independent candidates, and they're collecting more and more votes,"
admitted the National Republican Senatorial Committee's former political
director David Carney. "People aren't sticking to just the two major party
candidates as they once did."
Whereas in the past Independent third-party
candidacies were driven by individuals representing the far left or the far
right—for example, Henry Wallace's Soviet-sympathizing Progressive Party
campaign for the presidency in 1948, or George Wallace's segregationist American
Independence Party campaign in 1968—there is an undeniable trend in the last
several decades toward Independent candidates running as Centrists. They feel,
as much of the public does, that the two political parties are increasingly
controlled by their partisan extremes and special interests. They are
compassionate but antibureaucratic, socially inclusive but fiscally responsible.
They are fed up with politics as usual and determined to shake up the system.
These Independent voices and Independent voters are on the rise as America moves
increasingly toward the center.
*End notes have been omitted
Excerpted from Independent Nation by John P. Avlon
Copyright© 2004 by John P. Avlon. Excerpted by permission
of Harmony, a division of Random House, Inc. All rights
reserved. No part of this excerpt may be reproduced or
reprinted without permission in writing from the
publisher.
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